Enigma Variations

Unlucky or unelectable?

May 23rd, 2008

Could Gordon Brown’s demise trigger Scottish independence?

Last night’s by-election result which saw a Labour majority of 8000 reversed to the Tories could presage more than just a Cameron government. It might convince voters who have previously supported the SNP but backed off from full independence to finally embrace their primary policy.

Despite the Tories having the most lightweight and unknown bunch of shadow cabinet members in history (how many of them can you name?) it appears that the English are so fed up of New Labour and Gordon Brown that they’d prefer anything else – except the Liberals who seem to have dropped off the political map after getting rid of two leaders in recent years. Certainly Brown has been unlucky with the US-created credit crunch and having inherited a series of unpopular policies from a Tony Blair who was increasingly seen as having made us a pawn of George W. I suspect that there is also a backlash against a government that is persistently trying to interfere with privacy and freedoms in the name of fighting terrorism in a way that is completely at odds with any idea of a free country.

Here in Scotland it’s impossible to imagine voters turning to the Tories in the way that appears to be happening in the south, and Labour support has historically tended to be more solid, but any move away from them is more likely to see further support for an SNP which is already riding high and is generally seen as doing a good job despite being a minority administration. The prospect of their wishes being overturned by an English Tory landslide might persuade enough of the Scottish electorate to consider going it alone as a viable option. If that idea starts to gather pace then Wendy Alexander’s attempt to force the SNP to hold a referendum before they are ready might rebound even more on Labour than it already has.

Entry Filed under: Social/Political